Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Each writes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has has something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
